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Happy Independence Day!
Sarasota County’s housing market showed solid momentum in May 2026, with closed sales rising 7.2% year over year to 845 transactions. Prices continued to edge upward as well, with the median sale price increasing 2.2% to $475,000, reflecting steady buyer demand despite broader economic uncertainty. At the same time, active inventory fell sharply, down 25% to 3,099 homes, indicating a tighter supply environment compared to last year.
Buyer composition shifted toward stronger cash activity. Cash sales accounted for 42% of all closings, up from 35.8% a year earlier, underscoring Sarasota’s continued appeal to investors, second‑home buyers, and other cash‑heavy purchasers. This elevated share of cash transactions suggests competitive conditions for financed buyers, even as overall inventory remains constrained.
Manatee County’s single‑family home market in May 2026 showed modest softening across several key indicators. Closed sales dipped slightly, down 0.5% year over year to 782 transactions, while the median sale price declined 3.8% to $460,000, signaling some easing in pricing power. Active inventory also contracted by 12%, leaving 2,832 homes available and suggesting fewer options for buyers compared to last year.
Buyer composition shifted as well, with cash sales making up 27% of all closings, down from 31.2% a year earlier. This decline points to a relative pullback among cash buyers, often investors or second‑home purchasers, compared to traditional financed buyers. Despite softer pricing and fewer cash transactions, the market still showed signs of buyer engagement.
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Rethinking 2026
Originally, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) was bullish on a rebound for 2026 existing home sales, with an expected 14% increase in sales when compared to 2025. While there were a lot of drivers for that expectation, I believe two of the main ones were mortgage interest rate declines and pent-up demand from a few years of low sales.
Mortgage interest rates continued to rise slowly over the past 30 days. As of this week, the average U.S. rate for a 30‑year fixed mortgage is 6.48%, compared with 6.37% a month ago. While most forecasts anticipated a gradual decline continuing through 2026 earlier this year, there are currently as many showing increases as decreases throughout the remainder of the year.