The latest mortgage delinquency statistics show that Hurricane Irma is continuing to disrupt local mortgage repayments this month. Both short-term delinquency rates (30 days late) and more serious delinquencies (90 days plus late) are up year on year. Although we have yet to see a foreclosure spike, it sure still looks like it is coming.
Before the hurricane, our market was showing significant year on year downturns in mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosures. The mortgage market looked about as healthy as it could get. Thus, the real estate market looked the same.
Within a month of Irma, we started to see a spike in short term mortgage delinquencies. Several people simply couldn’t pay their mortgages or chose not to do so. That trend has continued ever since, but it is at a slightly lower rate this month. The most recent data shows that there are 36% more people 30 days late on their mortgages than there were last year at the same time. The total is only 5.3%, which isn’t terrible, but it is significantly higher than last year.
As we have seen significant time pass since Irma, longer-term mortgage delinquencies are up as well. We define long-term delinquencies as people who are 90 days or more late on their mortgage payments. The latest data shows that long-term delinquencies are up 57% when compared to last year at this time. Again, the total is relatively low at 3.3%; however, the year on year rise is significant. There was very little change in these statistics from last month.
The good news is that we haven’t yet seen a spike in foreclosures, but it sure looks like it will be coming. It likely won’t be enough volume to materially change pricing our market, but it should create a few good buying opportunities for people looking at buying homes in foreclosure. The video below shows the relevant statistics for our area.