I was looking back at Realtor.com’s forecasts for real estate activity in 2022 just to level set where we are today. This isn’t to pick on Realtor.com as it is an excellent source of information about the real estate market. It’s more to point out that even the expert forecasts can miss reality by miles.
Some of the 2022 forecasts from Realtor.com include:
Mortgage Rates average 3.3% for the year but ending the year at 3.6%. Well, if they doubled those numbers, they would have been much closer.
Existing home sales up by 6.6% from the 6 million sold in 2021. At this point, it looks like we will end the year more than 15% down rather than 6.6% up.
So, who’s crystal ball should we believe for 2023? Unfortunately, the answer likely won’t present itself until the end of next year. There is a ton of doom and gloom out there in current forecasts; however, they could just as easily miss the mark as Realtor.com did in 2022. My view is that while forecasts should factor into your decision making, your individual circumstances should weigh in much more heavily in determining whether you should be a home buyer, seller, or holder at any point in time. It is very easy to justify it being the right time for any of these cases depending on the needs of a particular client.